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Predicting
Divorce
Our studies (and other's) show that marital
failure is predictable to a surprising degree--in groups
of couples, not that it is that predictable for any one
couple. However, various studies do suggest that, for many couples, the seeds of divorce are present
prior to marriage. Given our primary focus on the prevention
of marital failure (e.g., Stanley, Markman, St. Peters &
Leber, 1995), we are most interested in understanding how
knowledge of prediction can lead to better interventions
designed to help couples avoid the pitfalls and reduce the
risks that are all to common in marriage (Markman, Stanley,
& Blumberg, 1994).
The following is just a sampling of factors shown to be
associated with increased risk of divorce:
- Wives'
employment and income (Greenstein, 1990)
- Neuroticism
(Kelly & Conley, 1987)
- Premarital
cohabitation (Thomson & Colella, 1992)
- Physiological
arousal prior to problem-solving discussions (Levenson
& Gottman, 1985)
- Parental
divorce (Glenn & Kramer, 1987)
- Previous
divorce of husbands (Aguirre & Parr, 1982)
- Communication
positivity/negativity (Markman, 1981)
- Religious
dissimilarity (Maneker & Rankin, 1993)
- "Conflicted"
type relationship (Fowers, Montel, & Olson, 1996)
- Not
pooling finances (Kurdek, 1993)
- Knowing
one another only a short time before marriage (Kurdek,
1993)
- Young
age at time of marriage (Booth & Edwards, 1985; Martin
& Bumpass, 1989)
- Being
low on conscientiousness (Kurdek, 1993)
- A
lack of support from friends and family for the marriage
(Kurdek, 1991)
- Attitude
dissimilarity (Kurdek, 1993; Larson & Olson, 1989).
- Many
other dimensions that can be or have been studied could
be added to this list.
While many have excellently categorized the factors associated
with increased risks of marital failure (Karney & Bradbury,
1995; Kurdek, 1993; Larson & Holman, 1994), we favor
a model that has very direct applicability to the work of
preventing marital distress and divorce--especially premarital
efforts. Essentially, the entire list of factors associated
with marital failure (measured premaritally) can be roughly
divided into factors
that are relatively static versus factors that are relatively
dynamic.
In other words, some risk factors are more changeable than
others. Factors that are more static at a given point in
time would include parental history of divorce, income and
education levels, religiosity, religious and cultural dissimilarity,
personality, and age (like other factors labeled here as
being more static, age is changing or can change, but you
cannot very well tell an 18 year old couple to hurry up
and grow up so that their marriage has a better chance,
though you might be able to convince them to wait a bit
longer to evaluate their relationship).
Factors
that are more dynamic would include communication ability,
conflict management skill level, attitudes about commitment,
expectations and beliefs, etc.
The distinction being made here is crucial for those doing
premarital work in order to focus the greatest effort on
the risk factors that are amenable to change (Stanley, et
al., 1995). Couples and premarital or marital educators
are, afterall, more interested in lowering
risks than simply understanding
them. Couples planning marriage are less likely to modify
their plans based on an appraisal of their relative risks,
and are more likely to be interested in changing patterns
when doing so has some promise for actually lowering their
risks of marital failure.
PREP®
is primarily focused on the dynamic dimensions identified
in research as crucial to marital success.
Added to the prediction research, studies strongly suggest
that couples can, indeed, learn skills, complete exercises,
and enhance ways of thinking--prior to marriage--that significantly
increase their odds of success once married. In our own
research on premarital counseling, we can track the positive
effects of preventive interventions years after the marriage
ceremony. At the University of Denver, we are now embarking
on what we believe is the largest study of premarital counseling
ever conducted, funded by the National Institute of Mental
Health. We hope to learn much more about risk factors for
couples the reduction of marital distress and prevention
of divorce by training couples prior to marriage.
While much of the research on PREP is with premarital couples,
most of the strategies and concepts of PREP are based on
research studies dealing with many areas of marital functioning.
The strategies of PREP are applicable to the engaged, newlyweds,
established and long-time couples.
Invalidation
and Prediction
Most
theories of marriage suggest that a high level of validating
interactions will lead to sustained marital satisfaction.
However, we observed no differences between distressed and
nondistressed couples on the degree of validation in their
premarital interactions. Surprisingly to many who work with
couples, levels of premarital invalidation, not validation,
strongly differentiated couples who did well in the future
from those who did not do well.
Couples who would become distressed or divorced (at some
point in time over the 12 years in our research) had higher
levels of invalidation in their premarital interaction than
couples who remained nondistressed. We highlight such points
in our preventive efforts because we think couples need
to know that certain negative patterns do far more harm
to their relationship than positive patterns can reasonably
counteract. In layman's terms, "one zinger erases many
positive acts of kindness" (Notarius & Markman,
1993, p. 18).
Thus, our analyses indicate that couples with dysfunctional
premarital interaction patterns, especially a tendency to
approach discussions of relationship issues with invalidation,
negative affect, and withdrawal, are at risk for marital
distress and divorce. These studies on premarital couples
parallel findings in research that highlight differences
between happily married couples and distressed marriages.
Taken together, a variety of studies strongly suggest that
the negatives of how couples interact are much more salient
and more predictive than the positives in predicting the
future prospects of the relationship (Gottman, 1993; Markman
& Hahlweg, 1993).
In our view, these results highlight the need for partners
to learn together how to adequately regulate negative affect
arising from relationship conflict. Thus, although the current
version of PREP addresses many aspects of healthy marriages,
it emphasizes key affect-management skills that enable difficult
issues to be handled in a constructive manner (Markman et
al., 1994).
PREP's
Focus
The
core interventions of PREP take place along both behavioral
and cognitive lines. Behaviorally, couples are taught very
specific, very structured models for effective communication
and problem solving. For example, we teach couples "The
Speaker/Listener Technique" in which a couple will
use an object to designate who has the floor, and therefore,
who is in the "speaker" and "listener"
roles at any given point in a conversation. Simple, clear
rules are associated with these roles. For example, the
speaker is to speak for him or herself and the listener
is to paraphrase what has been heard, editing out the tendency
to form or express rebuttals while listening.
These simple rules are not unlike what has been taught in
many communication models, but in PREP®,
we emphasize their importance by highlighting empirically
derived danger signs that the basic rules counteract.
Couples are also taught to use techniques such as "time
out" for stopping escalating interactions and shifting
into more positive modes of communicating--like the Speaker/Listener
Technique.
Such
rules teach partners to structure conflict so that they
can control it, rather than be controlled by it. Although
structure can be seen as artificial or constricting, we
focus on helping couples see the value of having boundaries
for interactions that may otherwise be unproductive, frustrating
(e.g., because of not being heard), or outright destructive
(e.g., yelling, put downs, and the potential to escalate
to levels of physical aggression).
The following information is taken from: Stanley, S.M.,
Blumberg, S.L. & Markman, H.J. (in press).
In PREP, structure is emphasized for helping couples manage
the more difficult, volatile, and negative emotions that
intimacy and conflict can generate. Structure is defined
as agreed upon ground rules for handling differences and
conflict well. Since few people have learned how to handle
such matters well, very clear rules give couples a road
map for getting through discussions that they are otherwise
not likely to handle well. The structure of simple rules
brings a degree of safety to a conversation that allows
for greater openness and less negative affect.
This leads to a crucial theoretical point. We do
not teach the Speaker/Listener Technique (and other
structured techniques) because we think such skills are
necessarily required for a great relationship. In fact,
the Speaker/Listener Technique employs active listening
skills such as paraphrasing that are clearly not normative
for couples. Rather, practicing the skills embodied in the
technique helps couples to learn how to counteract the negative
patterns of interaction that can bring a marriage to it's
knees.
Further, when stressed by conflict, couples can employ the
artificial structure to help them communicate more effectively
and reduce the tendency toward Danger Signs such as escalation,
invalidation, negative interpretations, and withdrawal (Markman,
Stanley, & Blumberg, 1994). In fact, following the rules
of the technique virtually guarantees that certain negative
patterns will not be expressed, but it does not necessarily
bring more joy and closeness. Those outcomes are more
linked to increasing protective activities such as fun and
friendship--experiences that are very vulnerable to the
negative patterns.
In summary on this point, we are much more interested in
reducing the negative patterns of interaction than in the
Speaker/Listener Technique per se. The technique is employed
as one means of helping couples achieve this crucial end.
The following information is taken from: Stanley (in press)
Research
Studies
A
number of studies specifically on PREP®
and it's variations have shown very encouraging results.
Behrens and Halford (1994) found that the communication
skills of those coming from divorced homes could be brought
up to the level of those not having this risk factor (parental
divorce). Blumberg (1991) compared PREP with Engaged Encounter,
finding at post assessment that PREP couples communicated
more positively and less negatively as judged by trained
coders.
In the United States, the longest term evaluation of the
skills-based, premarital training ever conducted has been
a study comparing PREP to matched control couples (Markman,
Floyd, Stanley, & Storaasli, 1988; Markman et al., 1993;
Stanley et al., 1995). PREP couples have been shown to have
about half the likelihood of breaking up or divorcing, have
demonstrated greater relationship satisfaction, and have
shown lower problem intensity than the control couples,
up to five years following training.
For years following training, PREP couples have shown better
communication than controls, as assessed on such dimensions
as communication skills usage, positive affect, problem-solving
skill, and support/validation. PREP couples have also shown
less withdrawal, less denial, less dominance, less negative
affect, and less overall negative communication than controls.
Lastly, PREP couples reported significantly fewer instances
of physical violence.
In Germany, a version of PREP®
has been in use by the Catholic Church, where PREP couples
(compared to a mixed control group, with about half of the
couples choosing other premarital programs offered by the
Church and about half receiving no premarital program) have
shown significant gains in communication and conflict management
skills from pre to post-test, and have maintained these
gains at the 1 and 3-year follow-ups compared to their pre-test
scores and to controls. Moreover, PREP couples were significantly
more satisfied at the 3 year follow-up and more stable as
compared to controls (Thurmaier et al.. 1993). Perhaps most
importantly, the latest data show that the PREP couples
have a lower divorce rate (1.6% vs. 12.5%) than the control
couples (Hahlweg et al., 1996).
A recent study on another variation of PREP in the Netherlands
did not show the same kinds of promising results as other
PREP studies have (Van Widenfelt, Hosman, Schaap, &
van der Staak, 1996). However, interpretation of results
from this study is problematic for various reasons. First,
PREP couples had been together an average of three years
longer than controls at the beginning of the study, making
group comparisons difficult. Second, since the PREP couples
averaged nine years together prior to intervention, inferences
to premarital "prevention" seem limited. Third,
control couples were significantly more likely to drop out
of this longitudinal study, which can produce a control
group that is increasingly select (biased) for couples doing
relatively well (Van Widenfelt et al., 1996) at 5 year follow-up.
Such methodological problems are very difficult to overcome
in longitudinal, intervention outcome research, and studies
on PREP®
are affected by such complicated methodological concerns
in varying degrees. At the University of Denver we are currently
beginning a large scale outcome study of premarital training
with the support of the National Institute of Mental Health.
This new study will address some of the design concerns
raised by other outcome studies on premarital training.
Methodological problems in long term studies make it
increasingly difficult to detect differences between groups
many years later.
It is important to note that the beneficial effects of a
program like PREP appear to be clear as long as 4 or 5 years
after the training. Beyond that, the effects probably weaken
over time, and therefore it is important for couples who
benefit from such material to periodically review it. Taken
as a whole, we are quite encouraged by the data from a
variety of studies suggesting that couples can learn skills,
attitudes, and strategies that can make a real difference.
Brief
Publication List
[See other documents on this
site. Especially the ones entitled "Key references . .
." for most up-to-date references.]
Key
Text:
Markman, H., Stanley, S., & Blumberg, S.L. (2001) Fighting
for Your Marriage. San Francisco: Jossey
Bass, Inc.
Sampling
of Journal Articles:
Markman, H. J., & Hahlweg, K. (1993). The prediction
and prevention of marital distress: An international perspective.
Clinical Psychology Review, 13, 29-43.
Markman,
H.J., Floyd, F., Stanley, S.M., & Lewis, H. (1986) Prevention.
In N. Jacobson & A. Gurman (Eds.), Clinical Handbook
of Marital Therapy. New York: Guilford Press.
Markman,
H.J., Floyd, F.J., Stanley, S.M., & Storaasli, R.D.
(1988) Prevention of marital distress: A longitudinal investigation.
Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 56,
210-217.
Markman,
H.J., Renick, M.J., Floyd, F.J., Stanley, S.M., & Clements,
M. (1993) Preventing marital distress through communication
and conflict management training: A 4- and 5-year follow-up.
Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61,
001-008.
Notarius,
C., & Markman, H. J. (1993). We can work it out:
Making sense of marital conflict. New York: Putnam.
Stanley, S.M., & Markman, H.J. (1992) Assessing Commitment
in Personal Relationships. Journal of Marriage and The
Family, 54, 595-608.
Stanley,
S.M., Markman, H.J., St. Peters, M., & Leber, D. (1995)
Strengthening Marriages and Preventing Divorce: New Directions
in Prevention Research. Family Relations, 44,
392- 401.
Stanley,
S.M., & Trathen, D. (1994) Christian PREP: An Empirically
Based Model For Marital and Premarital Intervention. The
Journal of Psychology and Christianity, 13, 158-165.
General
References
Aguirre,
B. E., & Parr, W. C. (1982). Husbands' marriage order
and the stability of first and second marriages of White
and Black women. Journal of Marriage and the Family,
44(3), 605-620.
Behrens,
B., & Halford, K. (1994, August). Advances in the
prevention and treatment of marital distress. Paper
presented at the Helping Families Change Conference, University
of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
Blumberg,
S. L. (1991). Premarital intervention programs: A comparison
study (Doctoral dissertation, University of Denver,
Colorado). Dissertation Abstracts International, 52, 2765.
Booth,
A., & Edwards, J. (1985). Age at marriage and marital
instability. Journal of Marriage and the Family,
47, 67-75.
Fowers,
B.J., Montel, K.H., & Olson, D.H. (1996). Predicting
marital success for premarital couple types based on PREPARE.
Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, 22,
103-119.
Glenn, N.D., & Kramer, K.B. (1987). The marriages and
divorces of the children of divorce. Journal of Marriage
and the Family, 49, 811-825.
Gottman,
J. M. (1993). A theory of marital dissolution and stabillity.
Journal of Family Psychology, 7, 57-75.
Greenstein,
T.N. (1990). Marital disruption and the employment of married
women. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 52,
657-676.
Hahlweg,
K., Markman, H.J., Thurmaier, F., Engl, J., Eckert, V. (1996).
Prevention of marital distress: Results of a German prospective-longitudinal
study. Manuscript Submitted for Publication.
Karney,
B.R., & Bradbury, T.N. (1995). The longitudinal course
of marital quality and stablility: A review of theory, method,
and research. Psychological bulletin, 118, 3-34.
Kelly,
E. L., & Conley, J. J. (1987). Personality and compatibility:
A prospective analysis of marital stability and marital
satisfaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,
52(1), 27-40
Kurdek,
L.A. (1993). Predicting marital dissolution: A 5-year prospective
longitudinal study of newlywed couples. Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology, 64, 221-242.
Kurdek,
L.A. (1991). Marital stability and changes in marital quality
in newlywed couples: A test of the contextual model. Journal
of Social and Personal Relationships, 8, 27-48.
Larson,
A.S., & Olson, D.H. (1989). Predicting marital saatisfacion
using PREPARE: A replication study. Journal of Marital
and Family Therapy, 15, 311-322.
Larson,
J.H. & Holman, T.B. (1994). Premarital predictors of
marital quality and stability. Family Relations,
43(2), 228-237.
Levenson,
R.W. & Gottman, J.M. (1985). Physiological and affective
predictors of change in relationship satisfaction. Journal
of Personality & Social Psychology, 49(1),
85-94.
Markman,
H. J. (1981). Prediction of marital distress: A 5-year follow-up.
Journal of Consulting & Clinical Psychology,
49(5), 760-762.
Martin,
T.C., & Bumpass, L.L. (1989). Recent trends in marital
disruption. Demography, 26, 37-51.
Maneker,
J. S. & Rankin, R.P. (1993). Religious Homogamy and
Marital Duration among Those Who File for Divorce in California,
1966-1971. Journal of Divorce and Remarriage, 19,
1-2, 233-247.
Stanley,
S. M. (in press). What's Important in Preparation for Marriage?
Marriage and Family: A Christian Journal.
Stanley,
S. M., Blumberg, S. L., & Markman, H. J. (in press).
Helping Couples Fight for Their Marriages: The PREP Approach.
In R. Berger & M. Hannah, (Eds.), Handbook of preventive
approaches in couple therapy. New York: Brunner/Mazel.
Thomson,
E., & Colella, U. (1992) Cohabitation and Marital Stability:
Quality or Commitment? Journal of Marriage and the Family,
54, 259-67.
Thurmaier,
F. R., Engl, J., Eckert, V., & Hahlweg, K. (1993). Ehevorbereitung-ein
partnerschaftliches lernprogramm EPL. Munich, Germany: Ehrenwirth.
Van
Widenfelt, B., Hosman, C., Schaap, C., & van der Staak,
C. (1996). The prevention of relationship distress for couples
at risk: A controlled evaluation with nine-month and two-year
follow-ups. Family Relations, 45, 156-165.
(C)
Copyright © 1998 by PREP, Inc.
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