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Predicting Divorce

Our studies (and other's) show that marital failure is predictable to a surprising degree--in groups of couples, not that it is that predictable for any one couple. However, various studies do suggest that, for many couples, the seeds of divorce are present prior to marriage. Given our primary focus on the prevention of marital failure (e.g., Stanley, Markman, St. Peters & Leber, 1995), we are most interested in understanding how knowledge of prediction can lead to better interventions designed to help couples avoid the pitfalls and reduce the risks that are all to common in marriage (Markman, Stanley, & Blumberg, 1994).


The following is just a sampling of factors shown to be associated with increased risk of divorce:

  • Wives' employment and income (Greenstein, 1990)
  • Neuroticism (Kelly & Conley, 1987)
  • Premarital cohabitation (Thomson & Colella, 1992)
  • Physiological arousal prior to problem-solving discussions (Levenson & Gottman, 1985)
  • Parental divorce (Glenn & Kramer, 1987)
  • Previous divorce of husbands (Aguirre & Parr, 1982)
  • Communication positivity/negativity (Markman, 1981)
  • Religious dissimilarity (Maneker & Rankin, 1993)
  • "Conflicted" type relationship (Fowers, Montel, & Olson, 1996)
  • Not pooling finances (Kurdek, 1993)
  • Knowing one another only a short time before marriage (Kurdek, 1993)
  • Young age at time of marriage (Booth & Edwards, 1985; Martin & Bumpass, 1989)
  • Being low on conscientiousness (Kurdek, 1993)
  • A lack of support from friends and family for the marriage (Kurdek, 1991)
  • Attitude dissimilarity (Kurdek, 1993; Larson & Olson, 1989).
  • Many other dimensions that can be or have been studied could be added to this list.

While many have excellently categorized the factors associated with increased risks of marital failure (Karney & Bradbury, 1995; Kurdek, 1993; Larson & Holman, 1994), we favor a model that has very direct applicability to the work of preventing marital distress and divorce--especially premarital efforts. Essentially, the entire list of factors associated with marital failure (measured premaritally) can be roughly divided into factors that are relatively static versus factors that are relatively dynamic.


In other words, some risk factors are more changeable than others. Factors that are more static at a given point in time would include parental history of divorce, income and education levels, religiosity, religious and cultural dissimilarity, personality, and age (like other factors labeled here as being more static, age is changing or can change, but you cannot very well tell an 18 year old couple to hurry up and grow up so that their marriage has a better chance, though you might be able to convince them to wait a bit longer to evaluate their relationship).


Factors that are more dynamic would include communication ability, conflict management skill level, attitudes about commitment, expectations and beliefs, etc.


The distinction being made here is crucial for those doing premarital work in order to focus the greatest effort on the risk factors that are amenable to change (Stanley, et al., 1995). Couples and premarital or marital educators are, afterall, more interested in lowering risks than simply understanding them. Couples planning marriage are less likely to modify their plans based on an appraisal of their relative risks, and are more likely to be interested in changing patterns when doing so has some promise for actually lowering their risks of marital failure.


PREP® is primarily focused on the dynamic dimensions identified in research as crucial to marital success.


Added to the prediction research, studies strongly suggest that couples can, indeed, learn skills, complete exercises, and enhance ways of thinking--prior to marriage--that significantly increase their odds of success once married. In our own research on premarital counseling, we can track the positive effects of preventive interventions years after the marriage ceremony. At the University of Denver, we are now embarking on what we believe is the largest study of premarital counseling ever conducted, funded by the National Institute of Mental Health. We hope to learn much more about risk factors for couples the reduction of marital distress and prevention of divorce by training couples prior to marriage.
While much of the research on PREP is with premarital couples, most of the strategies and concepts of PREP are based on research studies dealing with many areas of marital functioning. The strategies of PREP are applicable to the engaged, newlyweds, established and long-time couples.

Invalidation and Prediction

Most theories of marriage suggest that a high level of validating interactions will lead to sustained marital satisfaction. However, we observed no differences between distressed and nondistressed couples on the degree of validation in their premarital interactions. Surprisingly to many who work with couples, levels of premarital invalidation, not validation, strongly differentiated couples who did well in the future from those who did not do well.


Couples who would become distressed or divorced (at some point in time over the 12 years in our research) had higher levels of invalidation in their premarital interaction than couples who remained nondistressed. We highlight such points in our preventive efforts because we think couples need to know that certain negative patterns do far more harm to their relationship than positive patterns can reasonably counteract. In layman's terms, "one zinger erases many positive acts of kindness" (Notarius & Markman, 1993, p. 18).


Thus, our analyses indicate that couples with dysfunctional premarital interaction patterns, especially a tendency to approach discussions of relationship issues with invalidation, negative affect, and withdrawal, are at risk for marital distress and divorce. These studies on premarital couples parallel findings in research that highlight differences between happily married couples and distressed marriages. Taken together, a variety of studies strongly suggest that the negatives of how couples interact are much more salient and more predictive than the positives in predicting the future prospects of the relationship (Gottman, 1993; Markman & Hahlweg, 1993).


In our view, these results highlight the need for partners to learn together how to adequately regulate negative affect arising from relationship conflict. Thus, although the current version of PREP addresses many aspects of healthy marriages, it emphasizes key affect-management skills that enable difficult issues to be handled in a constructive manner (Markman et al., 1994).

 PREP's Focus


The core interventions of PREP take place along both behavioral and cognitive lines. Behaviorally, couples are taught very specific, very structured models for effective communication and problem solving. For example, we teach couples "The Speaker/Listener Technique" in which a couple will use an object to designate who has the floor, and therefore, who is in the "speaker" and "listener" roles at any given point in a conversation. Simple, clear rules are associated with these roles. For example, the speaker is to speak for him or herself and the listener is to paraphrase what has been heard, editing out the tendency to form or express rebuttals while listening.


These simple rules are not unlike what has been taught in many communication models, but in PREP®, we emphasize their importance by highlighting empirically derived danger signs that the basic rules counteract. Couples are also taught to use techniques such as "time out" for stopping escalating interactions and shifting into more positive modes of communicating--like the Speaker/Listener Technique.

Such rules teach partners to structure conflict so that they can control it, rather than be controlled by it. Although structure can be seen as artificial or constricting, we focus on helping couples see the value of having boundaries for interactions that may otherwise be unproductive, frustrating (e.g., because of not being heard), or outright destructive (e.g., yelling, put downs, and the potential to escalate to levels of physical aggression).


The following information is taken from: Stanley, S.M., Blumberg, S.L. & Markman, H.J. (in press).


In PREP, structure is emphasized for helping couples manage the more difficult, volatile, and negative emotions that intimacy and conflict can generate. Structure is defined as agreed upon ground rules for handling differences and conflict well. Since few people have learned how to handle such matters well, very clear rules give couples a road map for getting through discussions that they are otherwise not likely to handle well. The structure of simple rules brings a degree of safety to a conversation that allows for greater openness and less negative affect.
This leads to a crucial theoretical point. We do not teach the Speaker/Listener Technique (and other structured techniques) because we think such skills are necessarily required for a great relationship. In fact, the Speaker/Listener Technique employs active listening skills such as paraphrasing that are clearly not normative for couples. Rather, practicing the skills embodied in the technique helps couples to learn how to counteract the negative patterns of interaction that can bring a marriage to it's knees.


Further, when stressed by conflict, couples can employ the artificial structure to help them communicate more effectively and reduce the tendency toward Danger Signs such as escalation, invalidation, negative interpretations, and withdrawal (Markman, Stanley, & Blumberg, 1994). In fact, following the rules of the technique virtually guarantees that certain negative patterns will not be expressed, but it does not necessarily bring more joy and closeness. Those outcomes are more linked to increasing protective activities such as fun and friendship--experiences that are very vulnerable to the negative patterns.
In summary on this point, we are much more interested in reducing the negative patterns of interaction than in the Speaker/Listener Technique per se. The technique is employed as one means of helping couples achieve this crucial end.


The following information is taken from: Stanley (in press)


Research Studies


A number of studies specifically on PREP® and it's variations have shown very encouraging results. Behrens and Halford (1994) found that the communication skills of those coming from divorced homes could be brought up to the level of those not having this risk factor (parental divorce). Blumberg (1991) compared PREP with Engaged Encounter, finding at post assessment that PREP couples communicated more positively and less negatively as judged by trained coders.


In the United States, the longest term evaluation of the skills-based, premarital training ever conducted has been a study comparing PREP to matched control couples (Markman, Floyd, Stanley, & Storaasli, 1988; Markman et al., 1993; Stanley et al., 1995). PREP couples have been shown to have about half the likelihood of breaking up or divorcing, have demonstrated greater relationship satisfaction, and have shown lower problem intensity than the control couples, up to five years following training. 


For years following training, PREP couples have shown better communication than controls, as assessed on such dimensions as communication skills usage, positive affect, problem-solving skill, and support/validation. PREP couples have also shown less withdrawal, less denial, less dominance, less negative affect, and less overall negative communication than controls. Lastly, PREP couples reported significantly fewer instances of physical violence.


In Germany, a version of PREP® has been in use by the Catholic Church, where PREP couples (compared to a mixed control group, with about half of the couples choosing other premarital programs offered by the Church and about half receiving no premarital program) have shown significant gains in communication and conflict management skills from pre to post-test, and have maintained these gains at the 1 and 3-year follow-ups compared to their pre-test scores and to controls. Moreover, PREP couples were significantly more satisfied at the 3 year follow-up and more stable as compared to controls (Thurmaier et al.. 1993). Perhaps most importantly, the latest data show that the PREP couples have a lower divorce rate (1.6% vs. 12.5%) than the control couples (Hahlweg et al., 1996).


A recent study on another variation of PREP in the Netherlands did not show the same kinds of promising results as other PREP studies have (Van Widenfelt, Hosman, Schaap, & van der Staak, 1996). However, interpretation of results from this study is problematic for various reasons. First, PREP couples had been together an average of three years longer than controls at the beginning of the study, making group comparisons difficult. Second, since the PREP couples averaged nine years together prior to intervention, inferences to premarital "prevention" seem limited. Third, control couples were significantly more likely to drop out of this longitudinal study, which can produce a control group that is increasingly select (biased) for couples doing relatively well (Van Widenfelt et al., 1996) at 5 year follow-up.


Such methodological problems are very difficult to overcome in longitudinal, intervention outcome research, and studies on PREP® are affected by such complicated methodological concerns in varying degrees. At the University of Denver we are currently beginning a large scale outcome study of premarital training with the support of the National Institute of Mental Health. This new study will address some of the design concerns raised by other outcome studies on premarital training.
Methodological problems in long term studies make it increasingly difficult to detect differences between groups many years later.

It is important to note that the beneficial effects of a program like PREP appear to be clear as long as 4 or 5 years after the training. Beyond that, the effects probably weaken over time, and therefore it is important for couples who benefit from such material to periodically review it. Taken as a whole, we are quite encouraged by the data from a variety of studies suggesting that couples can learn skills, attitudes, and strategies that can make a real difference.


Brief Publication List

[See other documents on this site.  Especially the ones entitled "Key references . . ." for most up-to-date references.]


Key Text:


Markman, H., Stanley, S., & Blumberg, S.L. (2001) Fighting for Your Marriage. San Francisco: Jossey Bass, Inc.

Sampling of Journal Articles:


Markman, H. J., & Hahlweg, K. (1993). The prediction and prevention of marital distress: An international perspective. Clinical Psychology Review, 13, 29-43.

Markman, H.J., Floyd, F., Stanley, S.M., & Lewis, H. (1986) Prevention. In N. Jacobson & A. Gurman (Eds.), Clinical Handbook of Marital Therapy. New York: Guilford Press.

Markman, H.J., Floyd, F.J., Stanley, S.M., & Storaasli, R.D. (1988) Prevention of marital distress: A longitudinal investigation. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 56, 210-217.

Markman, H.J., Renick, M.J., Floyd, F.J., Stanley, S.M., & Clements, M. (1993) Preventing marital distress through communication and conflict management training: A 4- and 5-year follow-up. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61, 001-008.

Notarius, C., & Markman, H. J. (1993). We can work it out: Making sense of marital conflict. New York: Putnam.
Stanley, S.M., & Markman, H.J. (1992) Assessing Commitment in Personal Relationships. Journal of Marriage and The Family, 54, 595-608.

Stanley, S.M., Markman, H.J., St. Peters, M., & Leber, D. (1995) Strengthening Marriages and Preventing Divorce: New Directions in Prevention Research. Family Relations, 44, 392- 401.

Stanley, S.M., & Trathen, D. (1994) Christian PREP: An Empirically Based Model For Marital and Premarital Intervention. The Journal of Psychology and Christianity, 13, 158-165.


General References


Aguirre, B. E., & Parr, W. C. (1982). Husbands' marriage order and the stability of first and second marriages of White and Black women. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 44(3), 605-620.

Behrens, B., & Halford, K. (1994, August). Advances in the prevention and treatment of marital distress. Paper presented at the Helping Families Change Conference, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.

Blumberg, S. L. (1991). Premarital intervention programs: A comparison study (Doctoral dissertation, University of Denver, Colorado). Dissertation Abstracts International, 52, 2765.

Booth, A., & Edwards, J. (1985). Age at marriage and marital instability. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 47, 67-75.

Fowers, B.J., Montel, K.H., & Olson, D.H. (1996). Predicting marital success for premarital couple types based on PREPARE.

  Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, 22, 103-119.
Glenn, N.D., & Kramer, K.B. (1987). The marriages and divorces of the children of divorce. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 49, 811-825.

Gottman, J. M. (1993). A theory of marital dissolution and stabillity. Journal of Family Psychology, 7, 57-75.

Greenstein, T.N. (1990). Marital disruption and the employment of married women. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 52, 657-676.

Hahlweg, K., Markman, H.J., Thurmaier, F., Engl, J., Eckert, V. (1996). Prevention of marital distress: Results of a German prospective-longitudinal study. Manuscript Submitted for Publication.

Karney, B.R., & Bradbury, T.N. (1995). The longitudinal course of marital quality and stablility: A review of theory, method, and research. Psychological bulletin, 118, 3-34.

Kelly, E. L., & Conley, J. J. (1987). Personality and compatibility: A prospective analysis of marital stability and marital satisfaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 52(1), 27-40

Kurdek, L.A. (1993). Predicting marital dissolution: A 5-year prospective longitudinal study of newlywed couples. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 221-242.

Kurdek, L.A. (1991). Marital stability and changes in marital quality in newlywed couples: A test of the contextual model. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 8, 27-48.

Larson, A.S., & Olson, D.H. (1989). Predicting marital saatisfacion using PREPARE: A replication study. Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, 15, 311-322.

Larson, J.H. & Holman, T.B. (1994). Premarital predictors of marital quality and stability. Family Relations, 43(2), 228-237.

Levenson, R.W. & Gottman, J.M. (1985). Physiological and affective predictors of change in relationship satisfaction. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 49(1), 85-94.

Markman, H. J. (1981). Prediction of marital distress: A 5-year follow-up. Journal of Consulting & Clinical Psychology, 49(5), 760-762.

Martin, T.C., & Bumpass, L.L. (1989). Recent trends in marital disruption. Demography, 26, 37-51.

Maneker, J. S. & Rankin, R.P. (1993). Religious Homogamy and Marital Duration among Those Who File for Divorce in California, 1966-1971. Journal of Divorce and Remarriage, 19, 1-2, 233-247.

Stanley, S. M. (in press). What's Important in Preparation for Marriage? Marriage and Family: A Christian Journal.

Stanley, S. M., Blumberg, S. L., & Markman, H. J. (in press). Helping Couples Fight for Their Marriages: The PREP Approach. In R. Berger & M. Hannah, (Eds.), Handbook of preventive approaches in couple therapy. New York: Brunner/Mazel.

Thomson, E., & Colella, U. (1992) Cohabitation and Marital Stability: Quality or Commitment? Journal of Marriage and the Family, 54, 259-67.

Thurmaier, F. R., Engl, J., Eckert, V., & Hahlweg, K. (1993). Ehevorbereitung-ein partnerschaftliches lernprogramm EPL. Munich, Germany: Ehrenwirth.

Van Widenfelt, B., Hosman, C., Schaap, C., & van der Staak, C. (1996). The prevention of relationship distress for couples at risk: A controlled evaluation with nine-month and two-year follow-ups. Family Relations, 45, 156-165.

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