Risk and Prediction Research

Numerous factors have been shown to increase the risk of marital dissolution. Factors shown to increase risk include, but are not limited to, wives' employment and income (Greenstein, 1990), neuroticism (Kelly & Conley, 1987), premarital cohabitation (Bumpass, Martin, & Sweet, 1991; Thomson & Colella, 1992), difficulties in the areas of leisure activities and sexual relations (Fowers et al., 1996), physiological arousal prior to problem-solving discussions (Levenson & Gottman, 1985), parental divorce (Glenn & Kramer, 1987), previous divorce of husbands (Aguirre & Parr, 1982; Bumpass et al., 1991), communication positivity/negativity (Markman, 1981), communication withdrawal and invalidation (Markman & Hahlweg, 1993), defensiveness and withdrawal (Gottman & Krokoff, 1989), higher ratios of hostility to warmth (Matthews et al., 1996), dissatisfaction with partners' personality and habits (Fowers et al., 1996), difficulties in communication and problem solving (Fowers et al., 1996) religious dissimilarity (Maneker & Rankin, 1993), maintaining separate finances (Kurdek, 1993), knowing the partner a short time before marriage (Kurdek, 1993), marrying young (Booth & Edwards, 1985; Bumpass et al., 1991; Martin & Bumpass, 1989), being less conscientious (Kurdek, 1993), problems relating to friends and family (Kurdek, 1991; Fowers et al., 1996), low or differing levels of education (Bumpass et al., 1991) and having dissimilar attitudes (Kurdek, 1993; Larsen & Olson, 1989).

The variables of greatest interest are those that are both dynamic in nature and causal in the development of marital distress and divorce. Related to this, many prospective studies of the prediction of marital distress or divorce have pointed to the quality of the interaction between the partners as highly predictive of future outcomes (e.g., Gottman & Krokoff, 1989; Gottman & Levenson, 1992; Markman & Hahlweg, 1993; Matthews et al., 1996). Studies such as these and their cross-sectional counterparts (e.g., Birchler, Clopton, & Adams, 1984; Margolin & Wampold, 1981) included procedures in which couples' interactions were observed and coded by trained observers to discriminate among couples on current or future level of distress or divorce. To be quite simplistic, many studies such as those mentioned above showed that couples who were either currently doing more poorly or likely to do more poorly in the future interacted more negatively and less positively than other couples. The hallmarks of couples headed for trouble included negative reciprocity, poor affect management, and withdrawal during problem conversations. As Matthews and colleagues (1996) summarized, "The weight of the evidence, then, suggests that the quality of marital interactions, whether warm and supportive or hostile and negative, relates to risk for marital distress and even dissolution of the relationship" (p. 643). In this way, the interaction between two partners appears to be dynamic, changeable, and causal in the development of marital distress and divorce. Prediction studies are so valuable precisely for the hope of illuminating such targets for prevention (or intervention).

In contrast, many of the dynamic variables were important in the prediction of both marital stability and marital satisfaction. In each of the comparisons, groups of couples could be reliably discriminated by dynamic relationship variables. Such findings are consistent with findings using growth curve analyses. Most notably, the work of Karney and Bradbury (1997) demonstrates that behavioral data (from objective coding) are more associated with the slope of these curves than such static dimensions as neuroticism (which are more associated with intercept). Hence, the dynamic factors are particularly telling of the course of marital quality over time. Many other studies are pointing the way to the importance of key dynamic processes and risk over time in marriage (e.g., Gottman, 1993; Levenson & Gottman, 1985; Markman & Hahlweg, 1993; Matthews et al., 1996).

As noted above, underlying PREP, we have categorized the various risks of marital failure into dynamic and static dimensions. PREP focuses on the dynamic dimensions, not because the static are not important, but because the dynamic are more plausibly changeable.

What Factors are Associated with Divorce and/or Marital Unhappiness?

Factors THAT ARE HARD TO CHANGE ONCE You are MARRIED:
- Having a personality tendency to react strongly or defensively to problems and disappointments
- Having divorced parents
- Living together prior to marriage
- Being previously divorced, yourself or your partner
- Having children from a previous marriage
- Having different religious backgrounds
- Marrying at a very young age (for example, at the age of 18 or 19; the average these days is about
     26 or 27 years of age for first marriages, though the risks for divorce associated with marrying
     young appear to diminish greatly by around age 22).
- Knowing each other only for a short time before marriage
- Having a history with parents that leaves one feeling insecure and fearful of abandonment in
     relationships as an adult
- Substance Abuse and Addiction problems (that does not change)
- Mental health problems can add to risk (but also can result from difficulties in marriage)
- Experiencing financial hardship

Factors that you can change to improve your odds, if you work at it:
- Negative styles of talking and fighting with each other, like arguments that rapidly become negative,
     put downs, and the silent treatment
- Difficulty communicating well, especially when you disagree
- Trouble handling disagreements as a team
- Some types of mental health problems and substance abuse issues are quite changeable
     or can be improved, with work and support and treatment
- Unrealistic beliefs about marriage
- Having different attitudes and expectations about important things
- A low level of commitment to one another, reflected in such things as not protecting your relationship
     from others you are attracted to, or failing to view your marriage as a long term investment

Domestic violence can be a risk factor in marriage that is either dynamic or static,
depending on the type. Some of the most dangerous types, such as where a male uses intimidation
to control a female are the least likely to change and are the most likely to present great
danger to a woman.

Compiled by Drs. Scott Stanley and Howard Markman, University of Denver,
co-authors of Fighting for Your Marriage; Markman Stanley, & Blumberg (2001)